Seasonal Outlook

SERC is a summer-peaking region that covers approximately 308,900 square miles and serves a population estimated at 39.4 million.  The region is divided into five diverse reporting areas that are identified as SERC-E (VACARS), SERC-N (TVA), SERC-SE (SOCO), PJM, and MISO. This 2017 summer outlook provides a high-level overview of generation resources available to meet the projected summer peak demands in those reporting areas.
 

SERC_RC_Summer

Key Findings:

  • Anticipated generation capacity resource projections suggest that there are sufficient resources within the region to meet the load for the summer season peak.
  • Some entities within the SERC Region anticipate possible drought conditions for the summer. Entities do not expect severe impacts to reliability due to this condition.
  • The continental US will experience a solar eclipse on August 21, 2017. Although SERC is directly in the eclipse trajectory, entities do not expect adverse impacts.

Solar Eclipse

The SERC region will experience a solar eclipse on August 21, 2017. Although entities within the eclipse trajectory do not expect adverse impacts during the event, SERC suggests the following considerations.

Opportunities

Capture in real time the actual effects of the sudden loss of solar capacity in affected entity footprints. This may include:

  • Evaluating how load changes
  • Determining if ramping issues are experienced
  • Assessing accuracy of entity assumptions regarding sudden loss of solar

Mitigation

The simplest form of mitigation is to replace solar with another form of generation during the short eclipse. 

SolarEclipse

Summary of Summer Operating Conditions

Entities within SERC expect summer conditions similar to 2016. They do not anticipate any reliability issues or unique operational challenges due to a drought or high temperatures.  The operational planning studies include the most up to date information, including load forecasts, transmission and generation outages, and firm transmission commitments for the time period studied.  Additionally, summer hot weather scenarios are included in the operational planning studies to determine if unique operational challenges exist for the upcoming summer season.

Seasonal Outlook

Quick Links

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i. Reporting areas are based on the reliability coordinator area boundaries TVA, SOCO, VACARS, PJM, and MISO

ii. NASA Eclipse Web Site