Seasonal Outlook

SERC is divided into five diverse reporting areas that are identified as SERC-E (VACAR-South), SERC-N (TVA), SERC-SE (Southeastern), PJM, MISO-S, and MISO-N. This seasonal outlook provides an independent assessment of the reliability of bulk electricity supply and demand in those reporting areas between December 2016 and February 2017.

Key findings of the assessment include:

  • Reserve Margins – For all assessment areas, sufficient generation resources are in place to meet the anticipated seasonal peak demand.
  • Winter Preparedness – Entities throughout the SERC footprint continue to place a heavy emphasis on winter preparedness.
  • The region does not currently expect any adverse impacts to reliability for the upcoming winter season.

Summary of Net Internal Demand

A comparison of the 2016 winter demand projections to the 2015 forecast and actual data show that the current winter forecast is in line with previous years’ projections. There are only slight differences in the year-to-year comparison. The actual demand experienced during the previous winter was slightly lower than the forecast; this is likely due to the mild winter conditions experienced in some assessment areas.


Summary of Resource Categories


SERC anticipates a seasonal reserve margin above 25% for all reliability coordinator assessment areas. There is no significant change in the 2016-17 winter season reserve margin levels from the previous season’s forecast.

 * The MISO and PJM data depicted in this chart reflects the entire RTO, including areas not in the SERC footprint.